Guidelines for the use of Bayesian networks as a participatory tool for Water Resource Management

Appendices Appendix I Basic statistical background of CPTs and properties of Bns Appendix II Description of how to complete conditional probability tables: Large data sets and model output. Appendix III Descriptions of how to complete conditional probability tables: Stakeholder or expert opinion These guidelines describe the way in which Bayesian networks (Bns) can support decision making in the field of water resource management. Though primarily intended for the water resource sector, they could just as easily be applied more widely to the sphere of environmental management. The guidelines have two objectives: • The first is to describe the way in which Bns can be used to assess the impact of any water resource management decision, not just in terms of the water resource itself, but also the effect it has on the social and economic life of the region. By linking environmental, social, economic and other types of factor in this way, the technique permits a genuinely 'integrated' evaluation of any particular decision. • The second objective is to show the way in which Bns can be used to help involve stakeholders more fully into the decision making process by providing a focus for the stakeholder engagement process. Issues and objectives identified by stakeholders can be incorporated into networks constructed with their full involvement. Moreover, the graphical nature of network presentation makes it easier to illustrate the impacts of a range of different management strategies to stakeholders. However, it should be stressed that in these guidelines networks are not used to make decisions, but simply to provide the information on which better-informed decisions can be made. The guidelines are presented in 6 sections with Appendices and a CD (enclosed in a pocket in the back cover). The CD includes working copies of case studies, a PDF copy of the guidelines, along with other papers and reports produced during the project. There is also a copy of the report by Cain (2000). For a full list see the Table of Contents. The project was undertaken with the active cooperation and collaboration of four organisations responsible for water resource management in the selected study sites. The four organisations were: i. The Environment Agency (UK) ii. Copenhagen Energy (Denmark) iii. Regione Abruzzo Giunta Regionale (Italy) – who also form part of the funded team iv. The programme coordinator was John Bromley; meetings were chaired by Mike Acreman. Acknowledgements This work was carried out …